The border standoff between Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly tense in recent days. Russian President Vladimir Putin Thursday recognized the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and The Luhansk People's Republic and signed relevant agreements, CCTV reported.
The Russian stock market fell sharply that day. Russia's MOEX index fell more than 15 percent at one point, and the RTS index fell more than 17 percent . By the close, the RTS index was down 13.21 percent.
Ib qho kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine, ob qho tib si nplua nuj nyob hauv cov peev txheej ntxhia, tuaj yeem muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, nrog cov lus ceeb toom ntawm kev nce siab ntxiv tsav nickel nqi rau lawv cov qib siab tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo ntawm kev txhawj xeeb txog kev muab khoom. Yog li dab tsi ntxiv qhov xwm txheej tau ua nrog kev lag luam mining?
According to SMM data, on February 22, Lun Aluminum hit a 13-year high of 3,342 / ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract once again stood at 23,000 yuan/ton. Spot aluminum prices also rose, SMMA00 aluminum quoted at 22,930 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of zinc, zinc prices rebounded slightly in Shanghai market on February 22, with the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot reaching 24890 yuan/ton. In copper, electrolytic copper prices fell slightly, averaging 71,180 yuan/ton.
Ib tug xov tooj ntawm kev lag luam sab hauv tau hais tias russia -Ukraine qhov xwm txheej ntawm txhuas, zinc, tooj liab thiab lwm yam tsis yog -ferrous hlau ua lag luam yog cuam tshuam tsis ncaj los ntawm lub zog.
Chen Sijie, an analyst at Huatai Futures, said the impact of the russia-Ukraine conflict is more based on the impact of energy shortages on production cuts, which will not only affect Russia's domestic production capacity, but also the production of a large number of non-ferrous metals in Europe.
Raws li kev kub ntxhov siab ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine, smelters hauv Europe yuav raug ntaus los ntawm cov nqi roj ntau dua thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua. Hais txog zinc, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias zinc smelters nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe muaj peev xwm ntawm 2.3 lab tons. Yog hais tias qhov xwm txheej ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine yog ntxiv fermented, nws yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam rau zinc mov.
As for aluminum, Chen sijie pointed out that Rusal is one of the largest aluminum producers in the world, with a capacity of more than 4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for more than 6 percent of the global electrolytic aluminum capacity. In 2018, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on Russian aluminum, which caused international aluminum prices to surge more than 30 percent in 11 trading days and disrupted the global aluminum supply chain. The recent escalation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a repeat of the situation in 2018 if there is a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the US increases sanctions. At the same time, from the second half of 2021, due to political tensions between Europe and Russia, natural gas supply shortages and energy prices have repeatedly soared, aluminum smelters have cut production, affecting about 850,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, accounting for 1.1 percent of global capacity. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more intense, Europe's electrolytic aluminum production capacity may be further affected.
Copper market, Soochow futures analysts said that Russia is the world's fourth largest producer of refined copper, refined copper supply in recent years stable at 1 million tons, the world accounted for about 4 percent , if western countries on Russia sanctions, Russia refined copper exports may be blocked. However, analysts at Huatai Futures pointed out that China imports copper concentrate mainly from South America and imports from Russia are very limited, so the impact of Russian copper supply on China's imports is limited.
