Nickel varieties: Recently, under the influence of the Russian nickel sanctions in Ukraine, the price of LME nickel rose sharply, once hit the 30,000 mark, LME nickel 0-3 spread hit a new high since 2008, while Shanghai nickel (210,950, 22,600.00, 12.00 percent ) price performance is weak, nickel price is strong outside and weak inside the situation intensified, refined nickel import losses as high as eight years peak. Domestic spot transaction is weak, the downstream profit is poor, the lack of purchasing intention. According to domestic website data, last week Shanghai nickel inventory plus 290 tons to 5479 tons, LME nickel inventory -3006 tons to 77082 tons, Shanghai free Trade Zone nickel inventory -400 tons to 6,500 tons, China (including the free trade zone) refined nickel inventory plus 601 tons to 18,940 tons, Global refined nickel explicit stocks -2405 tonnes to 96,022 tonnes, the global refined nickel explicit stocks continue to decline.
Nickel view: The overall nickel is still in the pattern of low inventory, strong reality and weak expectation. The global refined nickel inventory is still declining and at a low level, and the reality of supply and demand is strong. Low inventory and low warehouse orders improve the elasticity of nickel price rise. Nickel midline supply and demand forecast is not very optimistic, but the midline forecast is also variable; In the inventory of obvious inflection point, the reality of supply and demand to excess before the nickel price is still more ideas to treat, the strategy to buy the main dips. Recently, under the influence of Russian nickel sanctions worries, the price of London nickel has greatly strengthened, but the domestic spot is cold, the downstream profit is poor, refined nickel and nickel iron price difference hit a ten-year high, forming a drag on the nickel price, the nickel price should not be too high.
Nickel strategy: one-sided: more cautious. Buy low - based, not excessive chasing high.
Nickel focus: Federal Reserve monetary policy, high nickel matte and wet capacity development, new energy vehicle battery technology development.
304 stainless steel varieties: last week, the national 300 series of stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.75 million tons to 519,400 tons, a decrease of 1.42 percent , which is flat cold rolling, hot rolling decline, in the Spring Festival continued to tired storage after the first week of decline. Recently, high nickel iron circulating resources are tight, nickel iron factory quotation is strong, the domestic factory price is at 1525-1540 yuan/nickel point, 304 stainless steel cost performance is strong, forming support for the price. Stainless steel futures prices suppressed after Yang, the second half of the week as futures prices stabilize and pick up, the spot market atmosphere improved significantly, the transaction improved significantly.
Stainless steel view: Current valuations by Aaron nickel, nickel stainless steel industry chain Shanghai nickel, nickel, iron, stainless steel from high to low in turn order, the stainless steel in valuations relative to the lowest part of the industrial chain, under the background of strong LME nickel, as well as steady growth in domestic environment for stainless steel consumption in March optimistic expectations, need to be mindful of stainless steel prices are likely to have low valuations to repair, to cautiously bullish train of thought. As the Philippines is still in the rainy season, the supply of nickel ore and nickel iron in China is tight, and the price of raw material nickel iron is firm. Moreover, the raw material price of stainless steel factory is high recently, which supports the cost of stainless steel. In March, the supply and demand of stainless steel is booming, and the output shows a trend of expansion, but the consumption delay after the Spring Festival and the macro policy of domestic warming, stainless steel consumption in March is still worth looking forward to.
Stainless steel strategy: more cautious. Buy low - based, not excessive chasing high.
Stainless steel focus points: stainless steel new capacity, stainless steel social inventory, stainless steel futures warehouse.
