According to the latest data published by INSG, the global nickel market was oversupplied by 112,200 tonnes in 2022, compared with a shortage of 166,600 tonnes in 2021.
Data published by WBMS showed that in December 2022, global refined nickel production was 260,700 tons, consumption was 267,100 tons, and the global refined nickel market supply shortage was 60,400 tons. Total global refined nickel production in 2022 was 2,999,700 tons and consumption was 3,060,200 tons, resulting in a shortage of 60,500 tons in the global refined nickel market. Global nickel ore production was 276,900 tonnes in December 2022 and 3,24,800 tonnes for the whole of 2022.
According to supply and demand data, recent nickel market trend. In the past two days, the nickel price has stopped falling and rebounded under the boost of the macro side. At present, the main contradiction of the nickel industry chain is still the structural shortage of pure nickel. After the opening of the profit window of electrolytic nickel import, the continuous customs clearance and import of resources in the bonded area, the increase of the import of electrolytic nickel spot premium is weakening, causing a certain pressure on nickel price. But global nickel stocks remain low, down 97 tonnes to 3,283 tonnes last week, while LME nickel stocks extended their decline to 45,000 tonnes.
Due to the Spring Festival before and after the weak demand of stainless steel downstream, after the Spring Festival stainless steel inventory is largely accumulated, the current stainless steel inventory especially 300 series inventory is at a historical high, after the Lantern Festival stainless steel inventory speed slowed down significantly, but high inventory pressure on stainless steel prices. After the price of stainless steel fell sharply, the steel mill is near the break-even line, and the price of nickel iron is relatively strong because of the tight supply of nickel ore, so there is a certain cost support below stainless steel. This week stainless steel plate prices higher, if the inventory is not effectively removed, it is expected that the pressure above the stainless steel.
In 2023, there will be many new electrolytic nickel projects in the world, and the electrolytic nickel shortage will be greatly alleviated. However, these projects will be put into production in the second half of the year. In the first quarter, the Tsingshan electrodeposited nickel project of 1500 tons is expected to hardly alleviate the situation of pure nickel shortage. After the release of the epidemic, the domestic economy will recover quickly, and the demand for pure nickel downstream alloy will remain rigid or increase slightly. Under the background of electrolytic nickel shortage, nickel price still has impulse high. But the subsequent increase in pure nickel supply is expected to suppress nickel price increases, the first quarter is expected to nickel prices as a whole range wide shock operation.
