According to the report, there are different views on global nickel production in 2022, with some market analysts believing there will be surplus, shortage and balanced supply and demand in the face of strong demand and supply.
Kev lag luam npib tsib xee thoob ntiaj teb xav tias yuav muaj ntau tshaj 76,000 tonnes hauv 2022, piv nrog qhov tsis txaus ntawm 134,000 tonnes hauv 2021, raws li THE International Nickel Research Group. Ntiaj teb no raw nickel ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav tsum mus txog 3.12 lab tonnes, nce li ntawm 10% los ntawm 2021, thaum xav tau nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav tsum mus txog 3.044 lab tonnes, nce li ntawm 18% los ntawm 2021.
Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, is now expanding its domestic nickel industry with the help of a new high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) project, commerzbank commodities analyst Daniel Briesemann said in a report.
& quot;Txawm li cas los xij, muaj qhov tsis paub meej ntawm cov duab no, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv Suav teb thiab Indonesia," INSG ntxiv." Cov kev kwv yees no tsis suav nrog kev hloov kho rau kev cuam tshuam ntau lawm."
Indonesia thiab Philippines yog lub ntiaj teb' ob tus neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws, tab sis kuj muaj cov peev txheej loj hauv Australia, Canada, Brazil, Canada, Tuam Tshoj thiab Russia.
Lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov hluav taws xob
Mothballed lossis tso tseg cov haujlwm mining tau ntsib kev txhawb siab vim npib tsib xee yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob vim muaj kev lag luam loj hlob rau nickel-cobalt-aluminium roj teeb rau tsheb fais fab, Briesemann tau hais.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel tau hais tias kev nce qib hauv nickel npua hlau ntau lawm hauv Indonesia yuav yog tus tsav tsheb loj ntawm kev loj hlob hauv 2022. Lub tuam txhab yog lub ntiaj teb' tus tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm qib siab nickel thiab palladium, thiab ib tug loj platinum thiab tooj liab tsim.
& quot; Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev xav tau nce hauv kev tsim khoom no yuav raug kwv yees ntau dhau yog tias Indonesia rov ua kom muaj kev txwv ntsig txog tus kabmob tshiab," Briesemann hais.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev faib hluav taws xob tsis ntev los no hauv Suav teb tau ua rau muaj kev poob qis ntxiv hauv kev tsim cov npib tsib xee, thaum muaj kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev sib kis txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam rau kev tsim khoom hauv Indonesia thiab New Caledonia, raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Macquarie.
Kev thov lub zog siab thiab cov pa roj carbon ntau ntawm npib tsib xee npua hlau tsoo Tuam Tshoj' nickel npua hlau ntau lawm hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2021, ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv ntawm nickel npua hlau thiab refined npib tsib xee, Australian multinational bank ANZ tau hais hauv a qhia.
Nornickel cia siab tias yuav khoom ntau dhau
Nornickel tau hais tias nws cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb nickel kev lag luam yuav tsum tau muab ntau tshaj 59,000 tonnes hauv 2022 thiab luv luv los ntawm 149,000 tonnes hauv 2021.
Qhov tsis txaus nyob rau xyoo 2021 yog vim qhov nce 17% hauv ntiaj teb nickel thov, tau tsav los ntawm kev thov los ntawm stainless hlau thiab roj teeb sectors, uas suav txog ntau dua 70% ntawm tag nrho cov nickel xav tau. Lub tuam txhab' tus kheej cov khoom poob qis hauv 2021 kuj yog qhov tseem ceeb.
Thaum Indonesia thiab Philippines tau maj mam ntxiv rau cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb, cov khoom txaus ntshai hauv ob lub tebchaws xav tias yuav muaj siab vim muaj kev hloov pauv, ANZ tau hais.
Indonesia xav tias yuav los nyob rau hauv kev nyuaj siab los txo cov kev cuam tshuam ib puag ncig ntawm kev tsim khoom vim hais tias ntau ntawm nws cov nickel kev lag luam yog powered los ntawm thee, ANZ hais.
At last year's UN Climate Change conference (COP26), the Indonesian government signed a commitment to end coal use, but also did not support a provision requiring a halt to the construction and financing of new coal-fired power stations, anz added, adding that China had also pledged not to build coal plants overseas.
& quot; Yog li, txawm tias muaj cov phiaj xwm txaus los ua kom cov nickel ntau lawm rau 1m tonnes, cov pa roj carbon hneev taw ntawm Indonesia' cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tuaj yeem txwv tsis pub cov roj teeb thiab hluav taws xob tsheb tuam ntxhab chasing ntsuab npib tsib xee. khoom siv," ANZ hais.
& quot; Cov tub ceev xwm tseem tab tom tshawb nrhiav qhov muaj peev xwm ua se xa tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam npib tsib xee nrog tsawg dua 70 feem pua nickel cov ntsiab lus los txhawb kev ua haujlwm hauv tsev."Qhov no yuav yog lwm lub taub hau rau nickel muab rau xyoo 2022."
Kev lag luam equilibrium
Kev thov nickel rau stainless thiab tsis-stainless hlau ntau lawm yuav nce nyob rau hauv 2022, ua rau lub lag luam dav sib npaug rau lub xyoo no nrog me me chav kom rov qab los ntawm tam sim no depleted inventory, ANZ hais.
Analysts at TD Securities expect a small shortfall in 2022, although the possibility of Indonesia banning exports of various nickel products or imposing taxes, as ANZ notes, will test this thin supply-demand balance.
& quot; Tseem muaj ntau qhov tsis paub meej txog cov cai no, tab sis cov tub lag luam tseem muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev pheej hmoo vim tias tsoomfwv cov thawj coj tau tawm tswv yim txog se lossis xa tawm txwv rau qee yam khoom ntxhia yav dhau los."
& quot; Txawm li cas los xij, vim tias qhov nce ntawm cov kev nqis peev uas tsis tu ncua thiab npaj siab, nws tsis paub meej tias txoj cai txwv no yuav siv li cas," lub tuam txhab peev Canadian tau hais.
UK brokerage Liberum kwv yees npib tsib xee ntawm $ 16,600 ib tonne hauv 2022, TD Securities ntawm $ 19,313, Macquarie Bank ntawm $ 19,375, ANZ ntawm $ 21,000- $ 21,500, Commerzbank cia siab tias cov nqi npib tsib xee mus txog $ 22,00 los ntawm lub xyoo kawg.
