Qhov macro
1. Teb Chaws Asmeskas tshaj tawm tias CPI loj hlob 9.1 feem pua ntawm ib xyoo nyob rau lub Rau Hli, ntaus ib qho 40- xyoo siab, piv nrog 8.6 feem pua hauv kev kwv yees yav dhau los thiab 1.3 feem pua hauv lub hli ntawm lub hli. Lub 75 lub hauv paus taw tes hike nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj yog loj tus nqi mus rau hauv lub lag luam rau ib tug ntev lub sij hawm, tab sis tom qab cov ntaub ntawv tawm los ntawm lub khw qhov kev cia siab ntawm ib tug 100 lub hauv paus taw tes hike nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj tau nce mus rau 70 feem pua, nrog 2-10 yields inverted los ntawm 21. cov ntsiab lus hauv paus. Kev nce nqi yuav nyob twj ywm siab ntev dua thiab kev cia siab ntawm kev nce siab ntxiv rau xyoo no tau nce. Peb thiab European cov lag luam lag luam tseem poob qis raws li cov laj thawj ntawm kev nce nqi siab uas ua rau muaj tus nqi loj thiab kev lag luam poob qis ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo. Ib bearish
2. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, Tuam Tshoj tus ntshuam thiab xa tawm tau nce 9.4 feem pua. Nyob rau lub Rau Hli, Tuam Tshoj tus ntshuam thiab xa tawm tau loj hlob los ntawm 14.3 feem pua ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau kev xa tawm los ntawm 22 feem pua thiab kev xa tawm los ntawm 4.8 feem pua. Raws li European thiab Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis thaum Lub Rau Hli, cov tuam txhab tau tshaj tawm tsis muaj zog xa tawm tshiab, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov sab nraud zoo li yuav qeeb hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. Txawm li cas los xij, tag nrho cov xwm txheej export tseem muaj zog.
3. Hais txog tus kab mob sib kis, Shanghai tau ntxiv 19 thaj chaw muaj kev pheej hmoo ntxiv, thiab Lanzhou tau siv kev tswj hwm thoob plaws nroog. Peb muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev kis tus kabmob sib kis thiab kev tiv thaiv loj
4. Kev xaus: Kev nce nqi hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau dhau qhov kev cia siab, qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua yog cua sov, ua ke nrog European lub zog ntsoog thiab kev lag luam nyiaj txiag poob qis, qhov kev cia siab ntawm macro bearish tseem mus rau ferment. Qee lub nroog loj hauv Suav teb tab tom raug kaw, ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov tshwm sim, thiab qhov kev xav tsis zoo txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.
Qhov chaw
1. LME cov khoom lag luam poob los ntawm 800 tons, tab sis muaj qhov nce hauv Cov Khoom Muag hauv Tebchaws Europe. Peb yuav tsum ua tib zoo saib seb qhov kev thov hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Amelikas puas poob qis thiab cov khoom muag tau pib ntws rov qab. Qhov luv nqi ntawm $ 15, qhia tias qhov kev xav tau qeeb qeeb, poob qis
2. Cov kab mob sib kis, kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob cuam tshuam thiab lwm yam kev xav tsis zoo los txhawb cov ferment ntawm cov tee loj, cov nqi tooj liab ua raws li lub caij nplooj zeeg mus rau qhov tshiab qis, kev saib xyuas ntawm kev tsis muaj zog. Spot ntshuam kom tswj tau qhov poob me me, kev lis kev cai tshem tawm txo cov tub lag luam kom tswj hwm tus nqi, nag hmo tus nqi nce mus rau 130 yuan, tus nqi poob tom qab tso tawm ntawm kev yuav khoom, tab sis tag nrho cov qib qis hauv lub tebchaws. Raws li tag nrho, muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov xaj xaj tshiab nyob rau hauv nqes hav. Raws li tus nqi tooj liab poob mus rau theem qis, lub siab xav ntawm kev yuav khoom ntau dua li qhov poob yog ntxiv dag zog. Qhov chaw tsis sib haum xeeb tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam me ntsis ntawm tus nqi.
3. Cov kev lis kev cai tau tshaj tawm tias kev xa khoom ntawm tooj liab thiab tooj liab rau lub Rau Hli yog 540,000 tons, nce 70,000 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los, uas qhia txog kev rov qab los ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xav tau tiag tiag. Ntshuam tau poob ib hlis-rau-hli nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Xya Hli, thiab cov khoom muag hauv tsev zoo li yuav poob dua.
4. Kev xaus: Macro xov xwm tsis zoo tseem tshwm sim thiab kev ntxhov siab txuas ntxiv ua tus thawj coj ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Copper tag nrho off-season tshiab txiav txim yog txwv nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem ntawm qhov chaw contradictions tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb, ua raws li qhov poob, tus nqi mus rau hauv qis, downstream yuav maj mam tso tawm, ua rau lub suab hloov pauv. Tag nrho cov kev pheej hmoo macro tseem loj, feem ntau tsis muaj zog, tab sis txuas ntxiv poob mus rau qis, kev lag luam tsis ruaj khov kev xav tau nce ntxiv, volatility ho nce, tsis chasing luv. Hnub no, 56500-55800.
