London, Lub Kaum Hli 21st (Argus) - Lub Koom Haum International Lead thiab Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb refined zinc ua lag luam tseem yuav muaj kev tsis txaus nyob rau xyoo 2026, vim tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom tseem qis dua qhov xav tau. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab zinc concentrate, kev ua lag luam xav tias yuav tig mus rau qhov seem me ntsis hauv 2027. ILZSG kwv yees tias yuav muaj 88,000-tuj tsis txaus nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb refined zinc ua lag luam nyob rau hauv 2026 thiab ib tug 25,000-tuj nyiaj seem nyob rau hauv 2027, feem ntau ntawm mine refined zinc.
Kev xav tau
Lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau refined zinc yog kwv yees kom nce 1.4% mus rau 140.2 lab tons hauv 2026 thiab los ntawm 1.2% rau 141.9 lab tons hauv 2027.
Raws li lub ntiaj teb cov neeg siv khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm zinc, Tuam Tshoj tus zinc thov kev loj hlob yuav tsum nyob nruab nrab. Tuam Tshoj tus zinc noj yog kwv yees kom nce 1.8% hauv 2026, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob yuav qeeb mus rau 0.3% los ntawm 2027. ILZSG tau hais tias kev lag luam vaj tsev tsis zoo thiab kev lag luam poob qis yuav ua rau txo qis zinc noj, tab sis kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam xa tawm yuav tsum muaj qee qhov kev txhawb nqa rau kev lag luam.
Tom qab muaj kev poob qis peb xyoos sib law liag, European zinc thov tau rov qab los ntawm 4.6% hauv 2025. Hauv 2026, European xav tau yuav tsum nce 0.3%, nrog rau kev nce hauv kev noj hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees, Ltalis, thiab Poland ib nrab offsetting poob ntawm kev thov hauv Fabkis thiab United Kingdom.
ILZSG tau hais tias cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no qhia tau hais tias kev tsim cov khoom lag luam ntawm European Union tau txhim kho me ntsis hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, tab sis kev nce nyiaj nce siab thiab nce cov paj laum tau txwv txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam.
Kev thov zinc hauv Is Nrias teb, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, thiab Tebchaws Meskas xav tias yuav nce ntxiv hauv 2026, thaum kev noj hauv Iran, Peru, Taiwan ntawm Tuam Tshoj, Thaib, thiab United Arab Emirates xav tias yuav poob qis.
Hauv 2027, zinc xav tau hauv Tebchaws Europe, Is Nrias teb, thiab Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsum tau nce ntxiv.
Kev muab khoom
Lub ntiaj teb zinc ntau lawm yuav tsum poob los ntawm 2.6% mus rau 124 lab tons hauv 2026, tom qab 6.3% nce hauv 2025. Cov khoom poob qis feem ntau tshwm sim los ntawm cov hauv qab no: qhov txo qis hauv Antamina mine tso tawm hauv Peru; qhov txo qis hauv Garpenberg kuv cov zis hauv Sweden; thiab txo qis hauv Red Dog mine tso zis hauv Tebchaws Meskas.
Tsis tas li ntawd, tom qab Lady Loretta mine hauv Australia tau kaw thaum kawg ntawm 2025, cov khoom siv los ntawm Australia yuav tsum txo qis, thiab cov khoom lag luam los ntawm Cuba thiab Kazakhstan kuj xav tias yuav poob qis.
Txawm li cas los xij, qhov nce hauv kev tsim khoom ntawm Kipushi mine hauv Democratic Republic of the Congo thiab Aljustrel mine hauv Portugal yuav ua rau qee qhov kev txo qis saum toj no.
Lub ntiaj teb zinc ntau lawm yuav tsum nce 3% mus rau 127.8 lab tons hauv 2027. Qhov kev loj hlob feem ntau yog los ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab 投放 hauv Suav teb thiab kev nthuav dav ntawm Rosh Pinah mine hauv Namibia thiab Gamsberg mine hauv South Africa. Kev tsim khoom hauv Is Nrias teb, Peru, thiab Qaib Cov Txwv kuj tseem xav tias yuav nce ntxiv, thaum cov khoom lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas xav tias yuav poob mus ntxiv.
Refined zinc ntau lawm
Lub ntiaj teb refined zinc ntau lawm yuav tsum nce los ntawm 0.9% mus rau 139.3 lab tons hauv 2026. ILZSG tau hais tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov zinc refined yuav raug txwv vim kev txwv cov zinc concentrate thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau dua hauv cov cheeb tsam sab nraud Suav teb.
Nrog rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab smelting, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom ua kom zoo zinc yuav tsum nce 3.7% hauv 2026, tab sis cov khoom lag luam hauv thaj tsam sab nraud Suav yuav tsum txo qis los ntawm 2%, ib feem cuam tshuam qhov nce hauv Suav ntau lawm.
European refined zinc ntau lawm cia siab tias yuav poob qis hauv 2026. Kev tsim khoom hauv Canada, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, thiab Peru kuj xav tias yuav txo qis. Kev nce hauv kev tsim khoom hauv Brazil, Is Nrias teb, thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb yuav ua rau qee qhov kev txo qis no.
Kev ua lag luam hloov mus rau qhov nyiaj seem hauv 2027
Nrog rau kev nce hauv zinc concentrate mov, lub ntiaj teb refined zinc ntau lawm yuav tsum nce 2% mus rau 142.1 lab tons hauv 2027.
Kev ua kom zoo zinc ntau lawm hauv Canada, Nyiv, Kazakhstan, thiab Peru yuav tsum nce ntxiv. Tsis tas li ntawd, txoj haujlwm nthuav dav ntawm Odda smelting cog hauv Norway thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm Verkhny Ufaley smelting tsob nroj hauv Russia tseem yuav ua rau muaj kev nce hauv ntiaj teb cov khoom.
ILZSG kwv yees tias thaum kuv cov khoom lag luam rov qab los thiab cov khoom siv zinc ua kom zoo tuaj sai dua li qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev loj hlob, lub ntiaj teb zinc kev lag luam yuav hloov pauv los ntawm qhov tsis txaus mus rau me ntsis hauv 2027.
