Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, npib tsib xee thiab stainless hlau kev lag luam xav tau ua raws li tsawg tshaj li qhov xav tau, thiab lub siab downward node tau ua ntej tshaj xyoo dhau los. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, txiav txim siab ntawm ib sab ntawm cov khoom muag lub voj voog hloov kev txhawb nqa, ntawm qhov tod tes, cov khoom siv nickel siab txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, thiab kev lag luam npib tsib xee thiab stainless hlau muaj lub sijhawm rov qab los nyob rau hauv qhov kev ua si luv luv. .
Tus nqi tsis muaj zog xav tau Nickel thiab stainless hlau poob hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm kev poob siab
Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam stainless hlau tag nrho tau pom muaj kev poob siab tom qab lub caij nplooj zeeg, thiab txhua xyoo tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus tau txav mus los.
Kev tshuaj xyuas cov laj thawj rau qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj zog hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv tseem ceeb nickel ua rau kev lag luam tsis tu ncua, thiab tus nqi txuas ntxiv poob nrog cov khoom siv thiab kev thov siab. ntawm stainless hlau nws tus kheej, uas yog lub ntsiab yog vim li cas rau gradual poob nyob rau hauv tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov stainless hlau lag luam.
Tshwj xeeb, muaj qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv nickel thiab kev thov, thiab kev ua lag luam tseem poob qis. Txheej txheem cej luam ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev lag luam npib tsib xee hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tau nce ntxiv, ntawm cov khoom siv sab nraud, raws li cov khoom siv raw sab nraud ntawm ntau dua 80 feem pua ntawm cov khoom, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Tsib Hlis nickel ore imports hauv 11,947,500 tons, nce 1,210,800 tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, qhov ntau ntawm 11.27 feem pua. Qhov nce hauv cov khoom siv raw khoom yog xav txog tom qab kev ua lag luam, uas hloov mus rau hauv kev loj hlob ntawm kev loj hlob hauv thawj cov nickel ntau lawm. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb txog kev lag luam, thawj cov nickel ntau lawm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 yog 106,800 tons, nce 27,800 tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, nce 35.19 feem pua.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev muab cov nickel-hlau, cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau kev tsim cov hlau tsis muaj steel, kuj tau nce ntau tshaj qhov kev cia siab. Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm General Administration ntawm Kev lis kev cai qhia tau hais tias tag nrho cov ntshuam nickel-hlau los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Tsib Hlis 2023 yog 2,921,800 hlau tonnes, nce ntawm 844,700 hlau tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, nce 40.67 feem pua. Txawm hais tias kev tsim khoom hauv tsev ferro nickel poob qis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias qhov kawg tag nrho cov khoom ntawm ferro npib tsib xee hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2023 yog 3.1104 lab hlau tons, nce ntawm 818,300 hlau tons hauv tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, nce ntawm 35.70 feem pua.
Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus no, nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, lub domestic npib tsib xee kev lag luam raws li ib tug tag nrho qhia ib tug volatile downward trend, raws li cov ntaub ntawv, los ntawm Lub ib hlis ntuj mus rau Lub rau hli ntuj 2023, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm domestic 1 # npib tsib xee yog 192962.92 yuan / ton, down. 6.02 feem pua ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, Lub Rau Hli 30, tus nqi hauv tsev 1 # electrolytic npib tsib xee yog 162900 yuan / ton, Tus nqi poob qis 31.00 feem pua ntawm lub xyoo pib.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev lag luam stainless hlau nws tus kheej hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 kuj nthuav tawm cov qauv ntawm cov khoom muaj zog thiab tsis muaj zog thov. Ua ntej thiab tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival hnub so, cov khoom muag ntawm cov khoom lag luam stainless hlau tau nce ntau, txij li lub Ob Hlis kawg, cov khoom muag ntawm stainless hlau yog 1,0442,200 tons, nce 22.25 feem pua ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov nce hauv kev tsim khoom kuj tseem txhim kho cov khoom siv siab, suav nrog kev tsim cov hlau tsis muaj steel nyob rau lub Ob Hlis ntawm 2.3096 lab tons, nce ntawm 11.31 feem pua ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam xa tawm thaum Lub Ob Hlis thiab Lub Peb Hlis kuj tseem qis dua li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, thiab nyob rau hauv qhov kev cuam tshuam zoo, tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev thov siab ntawm stainless hlau maj mam dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tsis zoo ntawm tus nqi. tau pom tseeb.
Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov nickel ua lag luam qaug zog yog ib qho nyuaj rau hloov cov khoom thiab kev thov sab ntawm stainless hlau.
Nrhiav rau pem hauv ntej mus rau ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov yam tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam ntawm stainless hlau lag luam yuav muaj ntau yam xws li kev lag luam macroeconomic thiab kev lag luam hloov pauv, cov nqi hloov pauv los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv thiab xav tau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom nws tus kheej.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav macro, kev nce siab ntawm cov paj laum los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nres me ntsis hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tab sis thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo thib ob ntawm lub xyoo, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nquag tso tawm cov lus "hawkish", lub kev ua lag luam cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tseem muaj qhov tshwm sim ntau dua ntawm cov paj laum nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm lub xyoo, kev lag luam cia siab tias US Performance index yuav txuas ntxiv mus, kev lag luam uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau yog nyob rau hauv kev sib sau ua ke, bearish nickel. kev ua lag luam, thiab cov khoom siv raw khoom nickel chaw ua lag luam tseem nyob rau hauv siab. Stainless hlau tus nqi siab yuav tsum nce raws li. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov tseeb PPI cov ntaub ntawv ntsig txog txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab ntau lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv tsev tau txo cov paj laum, uas txhawb nqa tag nrho cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev nqis peev kev ntseeg siab, thiab tsim qhov zoo rau cov khoom muag, suav nrog cov khoom siv hlau.
Tsis tas li ntawd, lub voj voog khoom muag tam sim no hauv Suav teb tab tom ua tiav qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam mus rau kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo, uas sib haum rau lub xeev kev lag luam kom rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam. Los ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev hloov pauv thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam, qhov nce ntawm cov nqi feem ntau yog nrog los ntawm kev txiav txim siab tsis zoo thiab kev rov ua kom muaj zog hauv lub voj voog khoom muag. Rau tag nrho cov khoom lag luam, lub peev xwm rau cov nqi lag luam zoo kom nce siab kuj tseem txhawb nqa rau kev lag luam nickel thiab stainless hlau.
Txawm li cas los xij, los ntawm tus nqi sab, thawj lub peev xwm ntawm nickel tseem raug tso tawm, thiab qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tseem nyob. Tam sim no, lub peev xwm ntawm electrodeposition npib tsib xee tau nthuav dav zuj zus, thiab cov khoom siv nickel hauv tsev yuav muaj kev nce ntxiv rau yav tom ntej, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis dua ntawm cov nqi npib tsib xee. Thiab vim hais tias lub davhlau ya nyob twg downstream cov khoom ntawm cov khoom siv nickel, chav ua noj thiab lwm yam kev lag luam suav nrog kev xa tawm siab, yog li nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam qeeb qeeb tuaj yeem ua rau cov kev xav tau sab nraud tsis muaj zog, kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev lag luam yog pom tseeb dua.
Ntxiv rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau nyob rau hauv kev lag luam npib tsib xee hauv kev lag luam ib txwm siv, npib tsib xee downstream lwm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tshiab tseem tab tom ntsib kev kub ntxhov ntau dua, cov qauv ntawm cov khoom siv ntxiv txuas ntxiv ua lag luam, kev lag luam kev xav pom pom tseeb. kev txhawj xeeb, tag nrho kev ua lag luam kev lag luam tau poob qis heev.
Yog li ntawd, nyob rau hauv rooj plaub uas qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev lag luam npib tsib xee yog qhov nyuaj rau kev hloov pauv tau zoo, lub siab ntawm kev ua lag luam npib tsib xee lossis txuas ntxiv rub tus nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj steel, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev cuam tshuam tsis txaus ntawm lwm cov ntaub ntawv raw, qhov cuam tshuam los ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam stainless hlau, los yog tseem mus rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm lub suab nrov.
Saib ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm stainless hlau nws tus kheej, ntawm ib sab, stainless hlau tsim muaj peev xwm nce ntxiv, thiab lub siab maj mam tso tawm. Stainless hlau tus kheej tsim muaj peev xwm tseem nce ntxiv, cov khoom siv hauv tsev stainless hlau tshiab muaj peev xwm tsim tau hauv 2022 tau nce hauv 6.08 lab tons, nce ntawm 14.36 feem pua, thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 stainless hlau tshiab muaj peev xwm tseem nce ntxiv, nrog rau gradual zus tau tej cov muaj peev xwm thiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tshiab tseem yuav muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm, tag nrho cov khoom ntawm stainless hlau yuav tsum tau nce mus ntxiv, ua rau kev lag luam siab yuav. Nyob rau hauv cov txheej txheem mus sij hawm ntev no, lub siab ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam ntawm stainless hlau yog maj mam tso tawm.
Txawm hais tias cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau feem ntau yog tsawg hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, muaj chav loj rau kev hloov kho nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo. Nyob rau hauv 2023, cov xov xwm crude steel tiaj tus tswj yog qhov pib txiav txim siab, los ntawm kev tsim cov hlau tsis huv, cov khoom tsim nyob rau lub Ib Hlis-Lub Rau Hli 2023 yog 13.631 lab tons, txo qis ntawm 0.79 feem pua los ntawm 13.739 lab tons hauv tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm qhov tsawg tag nrho cov khoom nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, kev tsim cov lag luam ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tuaj yeem hloov kho qhov chaw loj.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov hlau tshwj xeeb tau tawm tswv yim rau Lido stainless hlau kev lag luam. Tam sim no, kev txhim kho thiab kev siv cov hlau tshwj xeeb uas sawv cev los ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj steel nyob hauv Suav teb yeej ib txwm ua tus cwj pwm zoo, thiab cov xeev thiab cov nroog tau nquag txhawb txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam steel tshwj xeeb, uas tau hais nyob rau hauv "Cov Lus Qhia ntawm kev txhawb nqa siab- kev txhim kho zoo ntawm steel kev lag luam". Ua kom pom tseeb ntawm kev tsim cov hlau tshwj xeeb zoo, tshwj xeeb alloy steel rau cov khoom siv high-end, steel rau cov tub ntxhais hauv paus thiab lwm yam me me, ntau yam tseem ceeb steel, thiab siv zog ua kom tawg txog li 5 yam khoom tseem ceeb steel tshiab txhua xyoo. kom zoo dua raws li kev lag luam xav tau. Ntxiv nrog rau kev txhawb nqa rau kev thov steel rau qhov normalization ntawm kev kho mob thiab kev tswj hwm ib puag ncig hauv xyoo tas los no, kev lag luam stainless hlau tag nrho tseem tau txais txiaj ntsig.
Raws li kev ua si ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, cov khoom muag siab ntawm stainless hlau tsis loj. Nrog rau tag nrho cov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, cov khoom muag ntawm cov khoom lag luam stainless hlau qhov chaw tau pom tias muaj kev poob qis dua, tam sim no, cov khoom muag siab ntawm qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm stainless hlau qhov chaw lag luam tsis loj, txij li lub Rau Hli kawg. , lub teb chaws stainless hlau cov khoom muag yog kwv yees ntawm 816,100 tons, nqis 4.12 feem pua ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Yog li ntawd, tag nrho cov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv paus yog qhov txhawb nqa ntau dua.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev nce qib ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tus nqi nce qeeb, kev lag luam hauv tsev yog nyob rau theem rov qab los, thiab nyob rau hauv kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev txhawb nqa txoj cai thiab lub voj voog tsav, tag nrho kev lag luam kev cia siab yog qhov zoo. Tsis tas li ntawd, thaj tsam ua tiav ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev tsim kho tau coj los ntawm kev ntsuas ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev tau nce ntxiv, uas tau coj kev txhawb nqa rau qhov kev thov rau cov khoom qis qis ntawm stainless hlau sawv cev los ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab muaj cuam tshuam me ntsis ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov siab ntawm stainless hlau nws tus kheej, thiab muaj kev txhawb nqa rau kev lag luam stainless hlau nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.
Txawm li cas los xij, txiav txim siab tias qhov kev txhawj xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv nickel tseem muaj nyob ntawm ib sab, thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog kev xav tau tsis muaj zog sab nraud, los yog rub tawm tag nrho cov chaw lag luam.
Hauv cov ntsiab lus, nws xav tias kev lag luam npib tsib xee thiab stainless hlau nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023 yuav tsum muaj qhov chaw muaj zog dua, tab sis tseem muaj kev kub ntxhov hauv lub quarter thib plaub. Nws xav tias tus nqi npib tsib xee kev khiav hauj lwm ntau los yog concentrated nyob rau hauv 150000-190, 000 yuan/ton, stainless steel nqi khiav hauj lwm ntau los yog concentrated nyob rau hauv 15000-17500 yuan/ton, raws li txoj cai raws caij nyoog ntawm Kev txiav txim siab, qhov tshwm sim siab ntawm qhov thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo hauv lub Cuaj Hli, qis lossis tshwm sim hauv Lub Xya Hli, Lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev pheej hmoo yog: qhov kev pheej hmoo spillover ntawm Fed tus paj laum nce mus txog ntau tshaj qhov kev cia siab; Seb qhov kev thov ua tau zoo ntawm lub voj voog tom qab vaj tse tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv raws li tau teem tseg.
