Raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam, tus nqi seaborne hlau ore yuav nce mus txog $ 150 ib tuj los ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm 2024. Tom qab cov kev ntsuas tsis ntev los no, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau tsa lawv cov kev cia siab rau kev xav tau los ntawm Tuam Tshoj.
Tus nqi yav dhau los xav tias yog $ 130 ib tuj, thiab hnub Monday tus nqi yog $ 135 ib tuj. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi tseem zoo dua li cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg ntawm $ 232.50 ib tonne mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis 2021, raws li Steelhome, tus kws tshaj lij.
Cov nqi hlau hlau tau nce siab nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no tom qab Tuam Tshoj lub hauv paus tseemfwv tau nthuav tawm cov kev ntsuas los txhawb kev lag luam kev lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov khoom lag luam chij. Kev lag luam vaj tse yog kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm cov hlau.
Tuam Tshoj yuav ntau tshaj li ob feem peb ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov hlau ore thiab nws qhov kev thov txiav txim siab thoob ntiaj teb cov nqi thiab cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom rau cov miners loj xws li BHP Billiton thiab Vale.
Cov nqi hauv 2023 twb dhau qhov kev cia siab vim muaj zog tshaj li qhov kev cia siab ntawm Suav steel xa tawm thiab kev xav tau loj hlob los ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab kev tsim khoom, ib feem cuam tshuam kev poob qis hauv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev.
"Tus nqi elasticity yuav txuas ntxiv vim qhov kev cia siab ntawm lub teb chaws qhov kev txhawb nqa pob, txo qis cov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam thiab kev xav tau muaj zog los ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom tsis yog khoom xws li tshuab, xa khoom, tsheb thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse," BMI Kev Tshawb Fawb tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv.
Raws li qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam, Tuam Tshoj cov hlau ore ntshuam hauv xyoo 2023 tuaj yeem ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab, thaum lwm tus ntseeg tias nws tuaj yeem yog qib thib ob siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2020, thaum cov hlau tsim tau nce siab ntawm 1.065 billion tonnes.
Cov khoom lag luam nruj heev rau xyoo tom ntej tseem yuav txhawb nqa tus nqi.
Ntiaj teb no seaborne hlau ore mov tuaj yeem loj hlob ntau npaum li 3.8 feem pua, raws li CICC tshawb fawb sau tseg. Tab sis cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntxiv tias qhov kev thov sab nraud Suav kuj tseem nce ntxiv, ua rau muaj kev sib tw rau kev xa khoom.
David cachhot, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm Wood Mackenzie tau hais tias "Sab nraum Tuam Tshoj, kev xav tau hlau ore yuav tsum txhim kho hauv 2024, tau tsav los ntawm kev xav tau zoo los ntawm Is Nrias teb thiab ib feem ntawm kev poob hauv Tebchaws Europe ob xyoos dhau los," said David cachhot, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm Wood Mackenzie.
Tuam Tshoj cov khoom seem kuj tseem yuav nce ntxiv me ntsis rau xyoo tom ntej, hais tias Hao Pei, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm thoob ntiaj teb brokerage FIS. Nws tau sau tseg tias Suav cov tuam txhab steel tsis muaj ntau txoj cai los txhawb kev yuav khoom los ntawm txawv teb chaws.
Cov hlau khib nyiab yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm hluav taws xob arc rauv steelmaking, uas yog siv rau hauv kev tawg-basic oxygen rauv steelmaking.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees tus nqi hlau ore yuav poob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo 2024, thaum cov khoom xa tuaj yuav tsum nce ntxiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias Beijing xaiv txwv kev tsim cov hlau.
Beijing reined nyob rau hauv steel ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2021 thiab 2022 kom qeeb carbon emissions, tab sis tsis tau siv txoj cai nyob rau hauv lub xyoo no vim muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog nyiaj txiag.
BMI tau nce nws qhov kev kwv yees tus nqi nruab nrab rau xyoo tom ntej los ntawm 20 feem pua rau $ 120, thaum Goldman Sachs nce nws qhov kev kwv yees los ntawm 22 feem pua rau $ 110. Wood Mackenzie kev kwv yees ntawm $ 108 yog 8% siab dua.
Qhov ntawd piv nrog tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm $ 119 txog tam sim no xyoo no.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias tus nqi yuav nyob nruab nrab ntawm $ 90 thiab $ 150 ib tonne xyoo tom ntej, ib feem yog vim tsis paub meej txog cov kaus mom hlau thiab muaj peev xwm cuam tshuam los ntawm tsoomfwv. Txog tam sim no, cov nqi hlau hlau rau xyoo 2023 tau nce los ntawm $ 99 txog $ 137 ib tonne.
