Lub International Copper Study Group (ICSG), tom qab lub rooj sib tham lub lim tiam no, ntseeg hais tias lub ntiaj teb no tooj liab kev lag luam yuav txav los ntawm ib tug yooj yim tshuav nyiaj li cas ntawm cov khoom thiab cov kev thov nyob rau hauv 2023 mus rau ib tug txaus siab rau lub xyoo tom ntej.
Hauv xyoo 2024, lub lag luam tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb yuav dhau los ntawm 467,000 tonnes, ntau dua li 297,000 tonnes tshaj qhov kev kwv yees los ntawm lub koom haum lub Plaub Hlis.
ICSG tseem pom qhov tsis txaus hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xyoo no, tab sis qhov tsis txaus tau raug txiav los ntawm kev kwv yees ntawm 114,000 tonnes hauv lub Plaub Hlis mus txog 27,000 tonnes, ib qho me me rau lub lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm 26 lab tonnes.
Lub koom haum cov kws tshawb fawb tau hais tias cov kev kwv yees no tsuas yog kev kwv yees luv luv xwb, thiab tau hais tias "vim muaj ntau yam tsis tau pom dua, cov khoom lag luam tiag tiag thiab kev xav tau sib npaug tsis tau ua raws li ICSG cov kev kwv yees tsis ntev los no."
Cov qauv tom qab cov xov xwm tshaj tawm tau tshaj tawm, nrog rau ob qho tseem ceeb hauv cov ntaub ntawv tshiab yog qhov xav tau tsis muaj zog nyob rau sab hnub poob thiab kev loj hlob muaj zog hauv Suav ntau lawm.
Kev thov tsis muaj zog nyob rau sab hnub poob, thiab Tuam Tshoj (hais txog kev noj) yog loj hlob
Ntawm nws lub rooj sib tham lub Plaub Hlis, ICSG tau kwv yees tias qhov kev thov tooj liab hauv cov tebchaws uas tsis yog Tuam Tshoj yuav loj hlob los ntawm 1.6% xyoo no, nce me ntsis los ntawm tsuas yog 0.4% xyoo 2022.
Hauv rau lub hlis dhau los ib leeg, muaj cov duab tsis zoo. Lwm lub ntiaj teb, tsis suav nrog Tuam Tshoj, xav tias yuav haus 1 feem pua tsawg tooj liab rau xyoo no dua li lub xyoo dhau los, "tsuas yog vim kev siv tooj liab qis dua hauv European Union thiab North American lub teb chaws", ICSG tau hais.
Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm "los ntawm kev noj" yog vim tias ICSG tsuas tuaj yeem kwv yees Tuam Tshoj siv cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, net imports thiab cov khoom muag hauv lub cev.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws qhov kev kwv yees tau ua raws li kev pom zoo ntawm kev lag luam tooj liab uas suav tias qhov kev thov tau nce siab tsis tau xav txog xyoo no. Copper qhov kev thov nyob rau hauv lub hwj chim thiab hluav taws xob tsheb lag luam zoo li tau cushioned cov hlau los ntawm sluggish manufacturing thov nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo dhau los.
Cov paj laum siab yog txwv kev tsim khoom hauv Asmeskas thiab Europe. Qhov tseeb PMI qhia tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam rov qab los tseem yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb uas ua rau muaj kev xav tau tooj liab ntau dua thoob ntiaj teb.
ICSG tau lees paub tias "kev pom kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis zoo siab", tab sis tseem muaj kev cia siab rau xyoo tom ntej. Lub koom haum tsuas yog hloov kho qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv tooj liab thoob ntiaj teb hauv 2024 txog 2.7% los ntawm 2.8%.
"Qhov kev xav rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom, txuas ntxiv kev vam meej hauv kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob thiab tsim cov peev txheej tshiab (ib nrab tiav) hauv ntau lub teb chaws yuav txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm lub ntiaj teb refined tooj liab cov khoom noj hauv 2024," tsab ntawv ceeb toom tau hais.
Refined tooj liab ntau lawm sawv
Kev siv tooj liab kev loj hlob rau xyoo tom ntej tseem yuav poob qis dua 4.6 feem pua kev loj hlob hauv ntiaj teb cov tooj liab refined.
Qhov tseeb tiag, kev nce ceev hauv cov zis tau pib lawm. ICSG tau hloov kho qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov tooj liab zoo rau 3.8% hauv 2023, nce ntawm 2.6% xyoo tas los.
Zoo li kev thov, kev loj hlob ntawm cov hlau ntau lawm nyob ntawm Tuam Tshoj, uas yuav txuas ntxiv nthuav nws cov tooj liab smelting thiab refining peev xwm.
Kev txwv tsis pub khiav lag luam thiab kev kho smelter hauv Chile, Indonesia, Sweden thiab Tebchaws Meskas yuav cuam tshuam rau kev tsim tooj liab hauv cov tebchaws no.
Tab sis Suav smelter tso zis yuav nce. Hauv thawj yim lub hlis ntawm 2023, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv tooj liab refined tau nce 11.5 feem pua los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, raws li Shanghai Hlau Market.
Cov smelters tshiab thiab nthuav dav ntawm cov nroj tsuag uas twb muaj lawm hauv Indonesia, Is Nrias teb thiab Asmeskas yuav ntxiv qee qhov peev xwm rau xyoo tom ntej.
Tsis tas li ntawd, vim yog kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom siv tooj liab rov ua dua tshiab, ICSG kwv yees tias cov khoom siv tooj liab rov ua dua yuav loj hlob rau xyoo no thiab tom ntej.
Tooj nyob rau hauv siab
ICSG qhov kev kwv yees ntawm kev ua lag luam tshaj tawm xyoo tom ntej tau ua rau muaj kev ua lag luam. Tab sis yog li nws qhov kev ntsuam xyuas tias cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yuav nyob ze rau qhov sib npaug xyoo no.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam feem ntau xav tias yuav muaj nyiaj txaus nyob rau hauv 2023 thiab 2024. Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias ICSG cov ntawv tshaj tawm txhua hli qhia tau hais tias kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tooj liab muaj qhov pom tseeb ntawm 215,000 tons hauv thawj xya lub hlis ntawm 2023.
Yog tias qhov kev thov sab hnub poob tseem tsis muaj zog nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo, nws tsis paub meej tias qhov nyiaj seem hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav txhais li cas rau qhov kev poob qis me me uas lub koom haum xav tau rau tag nrho lub xyoo.
Txawm hais tias lub sijhawm yuav nyob rau hauv kev tsis ntseeg, ICSG qhov kev hloov kho tshiab tshaj plaws qhia txog qhov kev pom zoo tias kev lag luam tooj liab tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai thiab tsis xav tau los ntawm cov teb chaws uas tsis yog Tuam Tshoj.
Kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov yam tsis muaj zog tau ua rau hnyav rau tus nqi tooj liab, uas lub lim tiam no poob qis dua $ 8, 000 ib tonne thawj zaug txij li lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau $ 7,940.
Nws yog qhov paub zoo tias tooj liab yuav ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob, tab sis tam sim no cov khoom siv luv luv yuav hnyav rau kev ua lag luam.
