Cov xov xwm txawv teb chaws nyob rau lub Ob Hlis 1 xov xwm: Nws tau tshaj tawm tias ntau tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tam sim no tau twv tias cov khoom lag luam tooj liab raug nqi qis heev, npaj rau lub xyoo no.
Cov nyiaj suav nrog Tribeca Investment Partners, Terra Capital thiab Anaconda Invest tau hais tias tag nrho cov khoom lag luam yuav txhawb nqa tus nqi nce hauv 2024.
Cov bullish bets ua raws li kev poob qis hauv cov hlau ore muab ob peb lub hlis dhau los, nrog cov mines loj tawm tsam thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los. Todd Warren, tus thawj coj saib xyuas kev lag luam ntawm Tribeca tau hais tias "Yog li ntawd, qhov zoo li qhov pom tseeb tshaj yog tam sim no morphing rau hauv qhov tsis txaus ntseeg," said Todd Warren.
"Peb xav tias kev lag luam yuav muaj zog heev rau lub neej yav tom ntej, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev sib tw khoom," Warren tau hais hauv kev xam phaj.
Matthew Langsford khiav ib $ 180m (US $ 120m) natural resources fund ntawm Terra Capital hauv Sydney. Nws hais tias tam sim no nws pom cov nqi roj "tsawg kawg 50 feem pua siab dua" los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2024.
Warren thiab Langsford tau hais tias Terra thiab Tribeca yog ob qho tib si ntxiv rau lawv cov tuav tooj liab.
Langsford tau hais tias qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev xa khoom tsis txaus tau tam sim no "evaporated" thiab tau hloov los ntawm qhov kev cia siab ntawm "kev tsis txaus txaus." Nws hais tias txoj kev loj hlob tseem ceeb "qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv kev lag luam nrog kev siv nyiaj tsawg ntawm cov haujlwm tshiab," lossis qhov uas tswj hwm thiab tswj xyuas cov haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm yog qhov nyuaj rau 10 xyoo dhau los.
Rau cov neeg ua lag luam mining, cov khoom lag luam poob siab tuaj yeem yog rab ntaj ob sab. Kev kaw ntawm Cobre's Panama mine, uas ua rau 1.5 feem pua ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv tooj liab, xyoo tas los tau tawm ntawm lub tuam txhab Canadian uas yog tus tswv mine, First Quantum Minerals Ltd. tau poob ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm nws cov nqi. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lwm cov miners tseem yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig raws li kev lag luam nruj tom qab kuv kaw.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, cov nqi tooj liab tau nce tsuas yog 2 feem pua ntawm xyoo tas los tom qab poob 14 feem pua hauv 2022. Tus nqi ntawm lub hauv paus hlau tooj liab tau hloov me ntsis txog rau lub xyoo no, kev lag luam ntawm kwv yees li $ 8,600 ib tuj, raws li London hlau txauv nqi.
Txawm li cas los xij, bullish bets ntawm 2024 txuas ntxiv mus.
Pierre Andurand hais rau cov tub ua lag luam hauv nws cov peev nyiaj hedge tias nws cia siab tias tus nqi tooj liab yuav nce xyoo no, txawm tias cov haujlwm hauv cov hlau rov qab nyob rau xyoo 2023, raws li tsab ntawv pom los ntawm Bloomberg. Cov qib ore poob, nce nqi, dej tsis txaus thiab kev tsis sib haum xeeb yog cuam tshuam rau qhov nyiaj tshuav, yog li cov nqi poob sawv cev rau kev yuav khoom, tsab ntawv tau hais.
Tus neeg sawv cev rau Andurand Capital Management, uas tswj hwm $ 1 nphom hauv cov cuab tam, tsis kam tawm tswv yim.
Robert Friedland, tus tsim billionaire ntawm Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., tsis ntev los no hais tias nws yuav tsis xav tsis thoob yog hais tias hlau ore nqi nce mus txog $ 9,500 ib tuj xyoo no raws li cov paj laum poob thiab Suav xav tau kub.
Terra qhov kev xaiv tooj liab saum toj kawg nkaus suav nrog NGEx Minerals Ltd., uas tau nce ntau dua 130% xyoo tas los thiab nce txog 15% txog tam sim no hauv 2024. Tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tseem tau yuav Capstone Copper Corp., uas tau nce ntau dua 30% hauv 2023 thiab kwv yees li 3% thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Tribeca's Warren tau hais tias nws nyiam cov khoom lag luam tooj liab suav nrog Freeport-McMoRan Inc., uas tau nce 12 feem pua ntawm xyoo tas los tab sis poob txog 7 feem pua los pib xyoo 2024.
Renaud Saleur, tus thawj coj ntawm Geneva-based Anaconda, hais tias tooj liab cov khoom siv mus sij hawm ntev txhawb nqa nws qhov kev thov, muab nws lub luag haujlwm hauv kev muab cov thev naus laus zis xav tau rau kev hloov pauv ntsuab. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam mining tseem muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb vim nws qhov kev cuam tshuam ib puag ncig, tooj liab tau ua pov thawj tias yog ib qho kev xaiv zoo dua li cov cuab tam hloov pauv ntau yam xws li cua thiab hnub ci. S&P Ntiaj Teb Lub Zog Huv Huv Index poob ntau dua 20 feem pua xyoo tas los.
Saleur tau hais tias Anaconda tau yuav Lundin Mining Corp., uas nws cov shares tau nce ntau dua 30 feem pua hauv 2023, nrog rau Freeport-McMoRan.
Kev lag luam hlau cov nqi tau nce siab nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Yuchen Huo, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hlau ntawm Bloomberg tau hais tias "Txoj kev lag luam tooj liab thiab txhuas yuav muaj chaw loj hlob ntawm cov nqi txav, vim tias muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom lag luam nrog rau qhov kev xav tau ruaj khov ua rau nce nqi," said Yuchen Huo, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hlau ntawm Bloomberg.
Cov khoom siv tooj liab nruj yog xov xwm zoo rau cov miners nrog cov haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm. Tab sis muab cov kev xav tau ntev ntev, kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom tshiab yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg. Qhov sib txawv loj heev uas qee cov tuam txhab lag luam tau ceeb toom tias nws tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob.
Nrog rau tag nrho cov no nyob rau hauv lub siab, cov tub ua lag luam yog betting tias qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm cov khoom yuav thaum kawg yuav zoo rau tooj liab. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov tuam txhab khoom muag tam sim no "nrhiav kom nce lawv qhov cuam tshuam rau tooj liab," Tribeca's Warren tau hais.
Copper "yuav tsum muaj kev lag luam bull sustained," Terra's Langsford tau hais. Vim tias "kev thov loj hlob thiab kev txwv tsis pub xa khoom, kuv xav tias cov nqi roj tuaj yeem nce siab nyob rau ob lossis peb xyoos tom ntej," nws hais.
