Ntawm lub rooj sib tham 2023 World Potash Conference thiab Golmud Salt Lake Forum thaum Lub Rau Hli 8, CRU potash kws tshuaj ntsuam Ju Hao kwv yees tias lub ntiaj teb xav tau cov tshuaj potassium chloride hauv 2023 yuav nce 8.9 feem pua, mus txog 64.2 lab tons, tab sis piv nrog li ntawm 71 lab tons hauv 2021. thiab 2020, tseem muaj qhov sib txawv. Los ntawm 2027, 8.8 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej yuav raug ntxiv.
Ju Hao ntseeg hais tias piv nrog rau xyoo 2022, xyoo no lub ntiaj teb cov qoob loo cov khoom lag luam yuav tsum tau nce mus rau ib qho twg, tab sis nws tseem qis dua 18 feem pua, thiab cov nplej, pob kws, taum pauv, mov thiab lwm yam khoom noj yuav tsum poob qis, tab sis yuav. nyob twj ywm ntawm qhov nruab nrab siab. Raws li cov nqi ua liaj ua teb feem ntau tseem nyob siab, cov qoob loo qoob loo hauv Tebchaws Meskas thiab Brazil xav tias yuav nce ntxiv rau xyoo 2023, txhawb kev xav tau chiv thiab pab txhawb kev rov qab los thiab kev loj hlob ntawm kev siv potash thoob ntiaj teb.
Los ntawm lub ntiaj teb fertilizer affordability Performance index, tam sim no lub ntiaj teb no urea affordability Performance index tau poob mus rau ib tug kuj tsawg, phosphate chiv thiab poov tshuaj chiv tseem hovering nyob rau nruab nrab siab, uas yog hais tias, qhov kev thov rau poov tshuaj chloride xyoo no yog ib qho nyuaj rau ho nce. , lub ntiaj teb no cov poov tshuaj chloride thov tseem siv sij hawm me ntsis kom rov zoo. Ju Hao tau qhia tias CRU cia siab tias qhov kev thov thoob ntiaj teb rau cov tshuaj potassium chloride yuav nce 8.9 feem pua hauv xyoo 2023, nce mus txog 64.2 lab tons, tab sis piv nrog rau qib ntawm 71 lab tons hauv 2021 thiab 2020, tseem muaj qhov sib txawv.
Hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej no, lub ntiaj teb nominal peev xwm ntawm potassium chloride yuav nce 8.4 lab tons, thaum 650, 000 tons ntawm cov poov tshuaj chloride peev xwm yuav raug rho tawm, nce nce ntawm 7.7 lab tons ntawm cov poov tshuaj chloride muaj peev xwm, thiab cov concentrated tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab yog tsuas yog nyob rau hauv 2023 thiab 2024 thiab 2027. Tsis tas li ntawd, nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, qhov nce nyob rau hauv kev ua tau zoo muaj peev xwm kuj loj heev. Ju Hao cia siab tias los ntawm 2027, lub ntiaj teb no muaj peev xwm tsim tau zoo yuav nce los ntawm 16.7 lab tons piv nrog 2021, thiab nyob rau lub sijhawm no, lub ntiaj teb kev thov rau potassium chloride yuav tsum nce 7.9 lab tons, uas txhais tau hais tias lub ntiaj teb no muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo tshaj. nce los ntawm 8.8 lab tons.
Xyoo 2022, qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv potash thoob ntiaj teb yog Western kev nplua rau Russia thiab Belarus. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias nyob rau xyoo 2022, kev xa khoom ntawm potash hauv Russia thiab Belarus tau poob qis, Belarus cov khoom xa tawm tau txiav los ntawm 60 feem pua ntawm xyoo, nqis mus rau 4.9 lab tons, thiab Russia cov khoom xa tawm tau poob ntau dua 30 feem pua xyoo. -on-xyoo, qis dua 8 lab tons. Ju Hao cia siab tias Belarus 'potash xa tawm yuav rov zoo dua hauv 2023, thiab Lavxias xa tawm yuav rov qab mus rau qhov qis qis. CRU cia siab tias Belarus cov khoom yuav loj hlob mus rau 7.8 lab tons hauv 2023 thiab Russia yuav loj hlob me ntsis mus rau 8.2 lab tons.
Ju Hao tau qhia tias qhov nce siab ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov tshuaj potassium chloride hauv 2021 thiab 2022 inhibited qhov kev thov rau potassium chloride hauv Suav teb, thiab qhov kev thov rau potassium chloride hauv Suav teb poob mus rau qib 14 lab tons hauv 2022. Tam sim no, nrog rau txo tus nqi ntawm potassium chloride, CRU cia siab tias qhov kev thov rau potassium chloride hauv Suav teb yuav rov qab mus rau qib 15 lab tons hauv 2023.
Hais txog cov khoom lag luam, Ju Hao tau taw qhia tias Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam potassium chloride tseem yuav nyob twj ywm siab hauv 2023. Nws qhia tias cov tshuaj potassium chloride nqa mus rau xyoo no hauv 2022 yog kwv yees li 6 lab tons, cov khoom siv potassium chloride hauv tsev muaj ze li ntawm 7 lab. tons, thiab kev kwv yees kwv yees ntawm 8 lab tons ntawm potassium chloride ntshuam, suav nrog qhov xav tau ntawm 15 lab tons xyoo no, thaum kawg ntawm 2023 Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam tag nrho cov caliber potassium chloride yuav tsum nyob twj ywm ntawm ntau dua 6 lab tons.
Vim tias cov nqi potash poob qis, kev thov thoob ntiaj teb cov tshuaj potassium chloride yuav maj mam rov qab los hauv 2023. Txawm hais tias Western kev nplua tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw, cov khoom siv los ntawm Russia thiab Belarus tseem yuav nce ntxiv, kev tsim khoom los ntawm Canada tseem yuav nce ntxiv, thiab Suav lag luam yuav nce ntxiv. yuav tsum muab txaus rau xyoo 2023. Ju Hao tau taw qhia tias txawm tias Is Nrias teb thiab Tuam Tshoj tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus loj, tab sis vim muaj cov khoom txaus txaus, nws xav tias tus nqi ntawm cov poov tshuaj chloride thoob ntiaj teb yuav poob mus ntxiv rau xyoo 2023, qhov chaw lag luam tsis tau txiav txim siab. Kev muaj peev xwm poob qis dua 307 US las tau kos npe los ntawm Tuam Tshoj ua ntej kawg ntawm lub xyoo no, CRU cia siab tias lub ntiaj teb poov tshuaj chloride tus nqi yuav qis dua nyob rau nruab nrab -2024, thiab ruaj khov.
